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Most recently, the 2008 global financial crisis led to one of the largest equity losses to date. Stock prices shot up by over 43% the following year, bolstered by rising credit volumes and business profits. In 1957, the year the S&P 500 was created, the stock market saw a loss of almost 11%. What does it look like when more abnormal returns occur? Due to the cyclical nature of the economy, recessions tend to be followed by strong recoveries. While extreme returns can happen, almost 40% of annual returns have fallen within the -10% to 10% range. Here is how the distribution of returns stack up: Total Annual Return (%) Historically, they have been skewed towards positive performance. equity returns roughly follow a bell curve, meaning that values cluster near a central peak and values farther from the average are less common. The year 1868 has insufficient data to estimate a total annual return. Source: Journal of Financial Markets, Slickcharts.

Here are historical stock market returns by year: Finally, from 1957 to date, returns are based on the S&P 500. They collected price and dividend data for almost all stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange during its early history.įrom 1926-1956, returns are from the S&P 90, the S&P 500’s predecessor. From 1825-1925, numbers come from researchers at Yale University and Pennsylvania State University. It’s also important to note that different indexes and data collection methods are used over the timeframe. The chart shows total annual returns, which assumes that dividends and other cash distributions are reinvested back into the index. In today’s Markets in a Minute chart from New York Life Investments, we show the distribution of U.S. The year is not over, but in the context of history, is this in line with what’s considered a “normal” return, or is it more of an outlier? Historical Stock Market ReturnsĪfter the fastest bear market drop in history, the S&P 500 rallied and now has a year-to-date total return of -4.7%. This Markets in a Minute Chart is available as a poster.